BEST BOND ETFs TO BUY NOW
Current Annual Yields for main Bond ETF Types (vs. Inflation)
Before you dive deeper into the yields in the tables below, remember that:
- All Yields to Maturity in this Guide are before inflation
- The only exception are Inflation Protection Bond ETFs (TIPS) that have a yield in the table after inflation (i.e. Real Yields). Therefore, if you want to compare Treasury Bond ETFs with TIPS you need to substract inflation from the Yield to Maturity. In real terms (Real Yields) returns from both of them will be similar
- Municipal Bond ETFs may be except from certain taxes (e.g. Federal) hence the yield/dividends should be compared to yields post tax from other categories
Year to Date Price Performance of Bond ETF Types
TAKE A SHORTCUT
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Here are the main Bond ETF Categories:
- Aggregate Bond ETFs or Blend Bond ETFs are convenient since they include both Treasuries and High Quality Corporates and Government Backed Mortgages
- Treasury Bond ETFs
- Corporate Bond ETFs (High Quality aka Investment Grade)
- Niche Markets ETFs including High Yield Bond ETFs or Inflation Protection Bond ETFs
If you are looking for Bonds to hedge your Equity portfolio the best choices are Aggregate Bond or Treasury Bond ETFs
SIZE OF TOP 5 ETFs IN EACH CATEGORY
I looked at the Main Bond ETF Categories and sizes (in $M) of their respective TOP 5 Funds:
The industry is dominated by 3 Asset Managers
- BlackRock’s iShares
- Vanguard ETFs
- State Street’s SPDR ETFs
Why is size of the ETF important?
If you have invested in ETFs you may have witnessed a closure of a Fund because commercially it wasn’t profitable. It’s not a problem for liquid markets but Bonds typically aren’t and small funds:
- Are linked with risk of closing down
- When they close down there is a risk the liquidation won’t be executed at best prices
Note that most of the ETFs below have a minimum size anyway and are considered benchmarks by market participants (I’ve not considered ETFs below $1bn AUM with a couple of exceptions)
Understand Your Needs
BOND ETF CHARACTERISTICS
In order to choose the right Bond ETF for your portfolio you need to assess your needs based on two factors:
- Your Risk Tolerance
- Your Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance (Credit Risk)
Aggregate Bond Funds
Also called Core or Blended Bond ETFs. The first group is a broad category consisting of a mix of Treasuries, High Quality Corporates and Mortgage Bonds, all usually rated Investment Grade. Importantly, these ETFs are the easiest to invest since they include most of the high quality bond universe (therefore, I will start with them below – you may just pick one and stop there)
US Treasury Bond Funds
The second group consists of Treasury Bonds that are considered virtually risk-free (no Default Risk). However, yields are currently very low and after accounting for inflation even negative for short term / intermediate
High Quality Corporate Bond Funds
The third group consists of bonds called Investment grade bonds – considered relatively safe because the resources of the issuers are sufficient to indicate a good capacity to repay obligations (usually issued by Blue-Chip Companies)
When you review the below tables keep in mind that conceptually the higher the “Spread” the higher the Credit Risk (although Spreads tend to also increase with time horizon, more about this here)
High Yield Bond Funds
The highest yielding bonds also known as speculative. Importantly, all Corporate Bonds face Default Risk. However, Speculative-grade bonds are issued by companies perceived to have a lower level of credit quality compared to more highly rated investment-grade companies (Read More on Credit Ratings)
Inflation Protection ETFs and Municipal Bond ETFs
Time Horizon (Interest Rate Risk)
Firstly, It is considered good practice to match your time horizon (Short Term, Intermediate or Long term) with the appropriate Fund Maturity Profile. All bonds carry Interest Rate Risk. Note that the longer the duration the more you can gain or lose from moving interest rates
Secondly, you need to understand why the value of Bonds decreases with rising interest rates. Think of it as an opportunity cost for an investor to keep holding on on Bonds that are generating less than newly issued at higher interest rates. That said, a bond will converge towards par (100) on maturity, thus conceptually you don’t take much interest rate risk when holding bonds to maturity.
Look at the “Duration” value in the below tables
ALWAYS THINK ABOUT INFLATION
Before any Bond ETF analysis below don’t forget to have a quick look at expected Inflation.
Always compare expected ETF Yield to (broadly) same horizon of expected Inflation.
By substracting inflation from the Nominal Yield in the below ETF tables you will understand what is the real return you can expect accounting for changes in consumer prices
E.g. for Intermediate Bond Categories you can take Medium Term Inflation etc.
ETF UNIVERSE AND TYPE OF UNDERLYING BONDS
The Bond ETFs are sorted by Term that you should match with your investment horizon:
- Short Term Bond ETFs (up to 3 year duration)
- Intermediate Bond ETFs (3 to 10 year duration)
- Long Term Bond ETFs (usually duration over 10 years)
AGGREGATE OR BLEND BOND ETFS
Best Bond ETFs by Relative Size
One of the Best Bond ETFs is iShares Core Total USD Bond Market ETF (IUSB)
- The fund is fairly safe Fund for Coronavirus Market Environment with close to 65% of Bonds in the highest rating category (AAA)
- The ETF is generating one of the highest yields in its category in this low Yield environment
- Outside of Government Bonds and Mortgage backed Securities from government-backed entities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac the incremental Yield comes from a handful on Financial Institutions like Morgan Stanley or Industrials like Oracle, Verizon or Dell
- This ETF should provide a good diversification for your Equity portfolio while still generating yield
BOND ETF TABLES
UNDERSTAND HIGH LEVEL CONCEPTS
- Assets is a measure of the Size of the Index Fund Fund. I generally only list Index funds with a minimum size of $1bn that are widely used by Investment Professionals. The exceptions are Niche Funds (Category 4) which are smaller by definition
- Expense Ratio – keep it low to generate more return. In order to do that plug two expense ratio numbers for comparison in the ETF Fee Calculator too see how it impacts your returns over the long term
- Duration is a measure of Interest Risk for Bonds (more on Interest Rate Risk).
A rule of thumb is to align the average maturity of a bond ETF with the length of time that you’ll have your money invested in that ETF. Also, that the longer the duration the more you can gain or lose from moving interest rates (for Treasuries, it will also provide a more effective diversification for Equities since rates tend to fall in a downturn)
- Spread is a measure of Credit Risk for Corporate Bonds (more on Credit Risk). Broadly speaking it is the additional return (in basis points 100 bps = 1%) over US Treasuries. Therefore, the higher it is the riskier the Bonds
- Yield to Maturity – is what you can expect the Bond ETF to generate going forward (conceptually it is the sum of Treasury Bond Yield and Spread) but before taking into account inflation
- Dividend Yield – shows how much was generated over the past 12 months. It can also include Capital Gain. However, past dividend yield is not necessary an indication of future dividends (Example for Treasuries described here)
- YTD Return – Bond ETF price move year to date. Moves in an opposite way to changes in interest rates and spread
- MAX Drawdown – is the maximum historical Bond ETF price decline from peak. As you can see it it in line with a combination of either or both duration / spread that are the key risk metrics for Bonds. However, this should not be seen in isolation but rather how the drawdowns behave combined in a portfolio with Equities
Aggregate Bond ETF Category - Best Bond ETF List
Below are some of the Best Fixed Income ETFs in 2020 as regarded by Market Participants in Category “Aggregate Bond ETFs” sorted by by Size:
Aggregate Category - Best Bond ETFs Links
TREASURY BOND ETFS
Best Bond ETFs - Relative Size
One of the Best Bond ETFs is iShares US Treasury Bond ETF (GOVT)
- Firstly, this fund provides with the best Yield in the Intermediate category
- Secondly, Treasuries are the safest Investment that benefits from flight to quality should the market deteriorate (yes, yields can go even lower from here which would boost this fund)
- However, after accounting for Inflation like most of the below Funds, GOVT ETF yields negative Real Return e.g. Annual Yield is 0.8% while 7 Year Inflation Rate (above tables) is close to 1.5%
- Also, there is also a risk on under-performance should Inflation come back
- In conclusion, this is why I currently prefer the Aggregate Funds (Category #1)
Read more about risks and returns you can expect from US Treasury Bonds in 2020
Treasury Bond ETF Category - Best Bond ETF List
Below are some of the Best Fixed Income Index Funds in 2020 as regarded by Market Participants in Category “Treasury Bond ETFs” sorted by Size:
Treasuries - Best Bond ETFs Links
CORPORATE BOND ETFS
Best Bond ETFs by relative Size
One of the Best Bond ETFs is iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD)
- Great Brand: LQD is perhaps the most recognizable name in Corporate ETF space and it is the #1 on FED SMCCF Purchase List in absolute amount
- Longest Track Record: Established in July 2002, it has the longest track record of all the reviewed Funds
- Liquid and diversified: Very liquid and diversified across over 2,200 Bonds
- High Yield: With a longer term and marginally more aggressive profile the spread is higher at 182 bps which explains most of the difference in Yield (2.4% before and c. 0.9% after inflation) vs. Vanguard VCIT
- Strong Sponsor: BlackRock provides better transparency of holdings and analytics
- Importantly, the Investment Grade sector benefits from the support of the FED that has started purchasing Bonds in May 2020
Click here full review of the TOP 3 Investment Grade ETFs that the FED is currently buying
Corporate Bond ETF Category - Best Bond ETF List
Below are some of the Best Fixed Income Index Funds in 2020 as regarded by Market Participants in Category “Investment Grade ETFs” sorted by Size. If you want to understand how the Spread (Credit Risk) for Investment Grade Bond Universe has evolved over time check FED data
Corporate Category - Best Bond ETFs Links
HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BOND ETFS
Best Bond ETFs by relative Size
One of the Best Bond ETFs is SPDR Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)
- JNK has a High Risk / Reward investment with substantial Credit Risk e.g. over 10% is in Energy Sector alone with other risky sectors like Aircraft part manufacturers
- The fund is well diversified with over 900 Bonds
- Interest Risk is relatively lower to other categories because the Bonds are floating (not fixed)
- The FED is buying JNK ETF as part of its ETF Purchase Program (SMCCF)
- However, close to 15% of the Fund is Rated CCC or lower with high Default Risk (see chart below that indicates risk before taking into account Coronavirus Market)
Before you consider High Yield...
- This is the riskiest part (high risk / high returns) of the mainstream ETF Bond Universe (you can observe how the Spreads are much wider than the Investment Grade category).
- Remember, it is not unusual to see Bonds defaulting within these Funds. As such they tend to underperform during a downturn (similar to Equities, hence lower diversification benefit)
- The ETFs have very high correlation to Equities providing very poor diversification
Defaults are frequent - On the graph below High Yield is represented by (BB & B & CCC/C)
High Yield Bond ETF Category - Best Bond ETF List
High Yield Category - Best Bond ETFs Links
INFLATION PROTECTION / TIPS BOND ETFS
INFLATION PROTECTED BOND ETFS
UNDERSTAND HOW REAL YIELDS WORK
What is the difference between Treasuries and TIPS if real rates on them are roughly the same?
The real yield may be the same but they won’t react the same way to inflation / deflation. TIPS will protect you against inflation but will under-perform if inflation turns out lower than expected.
For Inflation Protected Bonds, both Bond Face Value and coupon are adjusted to inflation so you get inflation protection. The downside is limited since you always get par price back. However, since inflation is much more common over longer time periods Bond’s face value would have gone up since issuance. This means that should price levels drop the face value will be reduced up to the floor level. If inflation drops more than expected Treasuries will outperform TIPS
In the below tables the Yields are Real i.e. you need to add inflation to get the nominal yield that you will get from these Bonds (it’s just a market convention)
Inflation Protection Category - Best Bond ETF List
TIPS - Best Bond ETFs Links
MUNICIPAL BOND / MUNI ETFS
Muni Bond ETFs Characteristics
Muni bond ETFs are exempt from federal income tax but may be subject to an investor’s state and local income taxes. Muni Bond ETFs are especially advantageous for high earners with highest tax rates. Given their increased risk profile these tend also to yield more than Treasuries.
Yields tend to correlate with risks e.g. SPDR Nuveen Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Municipal Bond ETF (HYMD) – last of the list is exposed to local entities rated below Investment Grade. Its top exposures include Puerto Rico (High Yield), Ohio and California. The Long term funds have a higher interest rate risk as duration is between 6 and 10 years.
Municipal Bonds Category - Best Bond ETF List
Munis - Best Bond ETFs Links
BOND ETFS THE FED BUYING NOW
Below is the full list of the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF) Purchase Programme of the Federal Reserve. I have also discussed it here.
The objective as stated by the FED is “purchase of secondary market corporate bonds issued by investment grade U.S. companies or certain U.S. companies that were investment grade as of March 22, 2020, as well as U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds whose investment objective is to provide broad exposure to the market for U.S. corporate bonds”
FED SMCCF ETFs
BOND ETF RISKS
BOND INDEX FUND FAQ
What is the difference between Bond Index Fund and Bond ETF?
Fundamentally, the strategy is the same:
1. They track an Index and replicate its performance rather than making active bets
2. They have low fees (expense ratios)
3. They are well diversified
4. They are mainly run by the same Fund Managers (BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street)
But there are technical differences:
1. An Index Fund in a Mutual Fund and trades less frequently while an ETF trades like a Stock (continually)
2. Expense Ratios (Fees) are usually higher for Index Funds vs. ETFs
3. Index Funds can have exit fees
4. However, ETFs can have trading commissions whereas Index Funds usually don’t
5. There could be a minimum initial investment in an Index Fund vs. none for ETFs
6. There could be tax related nuances depending on your geography
We mainly talk about ETFs here above since they are more convenient to trade throughout the day and have more liquidity.
What is the best Bond Index Fund?
iShares Core Total USD Bond Market ETF (IUSB)
iShares US Treasury Bond ETF (GOVT)
iShares Broad USD Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (USIG)
SPDR Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)
Are the Best Bond ETFs for Q3 2020 in their respective categories assuming an Intermediate Time Horizon with 5 to 10 year duration and generating the highest Yields
Can Bond ETFs lose money?
Yes. The value of Bonds decreases with rising interest rates.
Think of it as an opportunity cost for an investor to keep holding on on Bonds that are generating less than newly issued at higher interest rates. Individual bonds don’t have that risk if you hold to maturity.
ETFs never mature and Bonds are rolled so some risk remains. But you can reduce risk by choosing Short Duration ETFs at the expense of lower Yield.
Do Bond Index Funds have a maturity?
Bond funds do not have a fixed rate of maturity instead Bonds are rolled i.e. they include many bonds that are added or removed during the time you own the fund. It is good practice to match your investment horizon with the category of the fund (short / intermediate / long term)
Do Bond Index Funds pay interest or dividends?
While the underlying Bonds pay interest on a agreed schedule the Funds will pay this income in form of dividends
How do you choose a fixed income ETF?
Understand your risk tolerance for Credit Risk
Define your time horizon for ETF Category
Maximize Current Expected Yield
What is the difference between Treasuries and TIPS?
The real yield may be the same but they won't react the same way to inflation / deflation. TIPS will protect you against inflation but will under-perform if inflation turns out lower than expected.
What are the biggest Bond ETFs?
Some of the biggest reference Bond ETFs include iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (SHV), iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCSH),iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT), iShares National Muni Bond ETF (MUB), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT), iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD), Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCLT) and SPDR Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)
Which ETFs it the FED buying?
The 5 largest ETFs that the FED is buying are: iShares iBoxx US Dollar Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF, Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF, Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF, iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF, SPDR Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond ETF
What are Best bond ETFs for recession?
Best Bond ETFs for recession are Treasury Bond ETFs, Aggregate or Core Bond ETFs and to some extent Investment Grade Bond ETFs. High Yield Bond ETFs are correlated to Equities and very high risk.
What are recession-proof mutual funds?
Best Index Funds for recession are Treasury Bond ETFs, Aggregate or Core Bond ETFs and to some extent Investment Grade Bond ETFs. High Yield Bond ETFs are correlated to Equities and very high risk.
What are best short term MUNI Bond ETFs?
Best Short Term fund include SPDR NUVEEN Bloomberg Barclays Short Term Municipal Bond ETF (SHM) and iShares Short-Term National Muni Bond ETF (SUB)
What are best intermediate MUNI Bond ETFs?
Best Intermediate Muni Bond ETFs include iShares National Muni Bond ETF (MUB), SPDR Nuveen Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond ETF (TFI), VanEck Vectors AMT-Free Intermediate Municipal Index ETF (ITM) and iShares California Muni Bond ETF (CMF)
What are best Long Term MUNI Bond ETFs?
Best Long Term Muni Bond ETFs include VanEck Vectors High-Yield Municipal Index ETF (HYD),Invesco National AMT-Free Municipal Bond ETF (PZA),Invesco Taxable Municipal Bond ETF (BAB) and SPDR Nuveen Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Municipal Bond ETF (HYMD)
DISCLAIMER – the views expressed here are my own personal views. The information provided is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. Also, you should consider the appropriateness of the information having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs, and seek professional advice where appropriate.
This website is not affiliated with any of the investment firms for which products are described here. These are meant to be illustrative investments. Also, please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Importantly, different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter (article), will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio.
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